中圖分類號： V476.1
文獻標識碼： A
DOI： 10.19358/j.issn.2096-5133.2020.12.012
引用格式： 潘點飛，胡偉，周文興，等. 一種基于時間序列的環(huán)控生保系統(tǒng)遙測數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)測方法[J].信息技術(shù)與網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全，2020，39(12)：67-72.

A telemetry data prediction method of environmental control and life support system based on time series analysis

Abstract： In order to realize on orbit fault prediction and health management of environmental control and life support system(ECLSS), time series information of telemetry data is studied. By predicting the change trend of key telemetry data, the fault can be identified and predicted before it occurs. Combined with the characteristics of telemetry data of ECLSS, the prediction model is determined by combining AIC and BIC. The model is used to predict and verify the telemetry data in practical engineering. The experimental results show that the prediction accuracy of this method can reach 98.2%when the oxygen partial pressure data is predicted forward by using this method, which can provide the basis for the subsequent system on orbit fault prediction and health management.

Key words : environmental control and life support system(ECLSS)；telemetry data; prediction；fault prediction