近期光伏產品，從多晶硅到組件均出現幅度不等的下跌，部分產品從最高點到現在下跌幅度超過30%，對相關生產企業形成巨大的壓力。

    下跌原因：供需失衡導致的階段性景氣下滑

    首先，價格下跌是太陽能產業具備成本優勢的必經之路；

    在這個前提下，要認識到這次價格下跌不是簡單的短期波動，而是一輪產業景氣周期的下行，是前兩年大量產能逐漸釋放與需求增速下降雙重作用導致的供需失衡，是階段性的價格下跌；

    這輪產業景氣開始于2009年中期，其觸發因素是金融危機之后各企業一次性提取多晶硅跌價損失，之后景氣一路上揚，到去年的下半年達到巔峰，其觸發因素是意大利與德國市場的超預期；

    之后景氣開始維持并慢慢下滑，其實組件在年初銷售已經開始有些困難，遠不似去年下半年的火熱，這是行業開始轉冷的跡象，之后組件價格開始下跌，然后是電池，然后是硅片，最后是剛剛開始下跌的多晶硅。

    還能跌多少、多久：硅片與電池最壞的日子快過去了，反彈言之尚早

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title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品" title="光伏產品">光伏產品的下跌呈梯度，不會多晶硅、硅片、電池、組件同時開跌或者同時止跌回升；.上一輪的價格下跌是由于金融危機帶來的，其觸發因素是嚴重高估的多晶硅價格雪崩，領跌是多晶硅，由成本下降和信貸萎縮帶來的需求下降；而今年這輪的下跌是由于下游需求無法承接如此巨大的上游產能，領跌是距離市場最近的組件；.幅度方面，目前根據歐洲的市場情況和現在的價格以及企業的盈利水平，我們判斷硅片、電池的價格應該跌至行業平均凈利潤水平；時間方面，我們判斷半年應該結束，但之前應該要經歷一波產能過剩帶來的超跌。

    后面會怎樣：多晶硅仍有較大下跌空間、硅片電池價格仍將徘徊向下

    從年初以來我們在路演以及溝通中反復強調的是規避多晶硅、硅片與電池。從目前來看，盡管部分產品的價格下跌幅度不小，但說止跌可能一個月內能看到，但景氣回升我們的判斷是需要到四季度前后；

    目前多晶硅價格并未大幅下降，我們判斷，在成本不斷下降和下游硅片盈利急劇萎縮的雙重壓力下，多晶硅將有較大幅度的下降，以年初最高的70萬人民幣/噸為基準，下跌幅度可能接近40%，市場價后面可能要到40萬上下。

    投資策略：關注價跌量增的時點、持續看好增量不降價的子行業

    在目前價格下跌趨勢尚未結束的情況下，我們持續去年年底以來的觀點，繼續建議對多晶硅、硅片、電池這幾個主流產品觀望；

    但這輪價格暴跌之后，我們一直期待的光伏平價就將來到，所以強烈建議大家關注價格下跌帶來IRR提高、出貨量增加的時點，這將是歷史性的投資機會；

    雖行業普遍慘淡，但量增價不減的子行業仍值得看好，如銀漿、逆變器。